Why the football underdogs are winning? The tactical story behind the World Cup upsets

“Football is the global game. No other sport captures the heartbreak, the joy, the tears, the desperation, the dreams, the sorrow, and the pure exhilaration quite like the beautiful game.  It unites people across nations, cultures, and generations, reminding us that in football, every match tells a story and every moment creates a memory,” says former India football team captain Victor Amalraj.

The exits of the Germany and Netherlands are not random shocks as they have a larger story to tell. These matches reveal a growing trend at the FIFA World Cup 2026: underdogs are no longer simply defending and hoping for luck as they are tactically equipped to beat the giants.

Morocco break Dutch hearts! Atlas Lions knock Netherlands out on penalties

How are the underdogs managing to pull off such upsets against the much stronger and fancied teams, which have a rich history associated with them.

Let us look at the matches between Paraguay and Germany and Morocco vs Netherlands to understand the tactical moves which helped the minnows to march into the Round of 16 at the FIFA World Cup 2026

Paraguay 1-1 Germany (Paraguay won 4-3 on penalties)

What happened?

Germany dominated possession and completed hundreds more passes.

Paraguay defended in a compact low block, denied spaces between the lines and frustrated Germany’s attackers.

Paraguay knock out Germany. Pics: FIFA/X

Germany lacked creativity and struggled to create clear-cut chances despite controlling the ball.

Paraguay waited patiently and capitalised on key moments before keeping their composure in the shootout.

No second chances: 10 storylines set to define the FIFA World Cup 2026 knockout stage

The big takeaway: Possession without penetration means little in knockout football. Germany had the ball; Paraguay had the plan.

Morocco 1-1 Netherlands (Morocco won 3-2 on penalties)

Morocco looked dangerous from the start and created some of the better chances with having 70% possession.

The Dutch took the lead but failed to kill the game.

Morocco equalised late, showing the mentality that took them to the semi-finals in 2022.

In extra time, Morocco looked the stronger side physically and mentally.

Morocco no longer see themselves as underdogs

The big takeaway: Morocco no longer see themselves as underdogs. They play with belief and experience on the biggest stage.

Bigger picture: Is this the decline of Europe’s football giants?

In the space of a day, Germany and the Netherlands; two nations with seven World Cup finals and four World Cup titles between them have been eliminated by Paraguay and Morocco.

This could be the moment the 2026 World Cup is remembered for:

European giants are struggling against organised, athletic and fearless opponents.

The gap between football’s elite and the chasing pack has never been smaller.

Teams from Africa, Asia and South America now have players competing at the highest club level in Europe and no longer carry an inferiority complex.

Next potential giant-killings

Belgium vs Senegal

Why watch: Senegal have pace, physicality and tournament experience. Belgium’s ageing golden generation could be vulnerable.

England vs DR Congo

Why watch: DR Congo have been one of the surprise packages and possess the athleticism to trouble England in transition.

Records broken, giants fallen and underdogs rising as WC 2026 enters knockout madness

Spain vs Austria

Why watch: Austria are one of Europe’s best-organised pressing teams and can make life uncomfortable for Spain’s possession game.

Argentina vs Cape Verde

Why watch: The biggest David versus Goliath story left in the tournament. Cape Verde have nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Colombia vs Ghana

Why watch: Ghana’s athleticism and counter-attacking ability make this a genuine 50-50 contest.

FIFA World Cup trivia

The Champions Curse!

Italy (2006)

Spain (2010)

Germany (2014)

Since lifting the FIFA World Cup, none of these three champion teams have won a single knockout match in the subsequent editions of the FIFA World Cup.

Some food for thought indeed!!!